Derby County warned Paul Warne factor could cost them if pulled into Championship relegation battle

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We are now a third of the way through the new Championship season, and Derby County are flying high in 12th place, but fans should not get carried away just yet.

After years of turmoil and chaos, it has been a pleasant return to calm and normality for Derby County as they enjoy their return to the second tier of English football.

Paul Warne got the Rams promoted last season by finishing second in League One, and has now steered the club to a midtable position after 15 games.

But, the Championship table is as tight as ever, and Derby are only four points clear of 22nd place Cardiff City. Indeed, Warne’s side are closer to the relegation zone than they are the play-offs right now.

There are plenty of things Paul Warne has got right this season and some things he has not, but looking ahead, the Derby County manager could be the undoing of the team’s chances of staying in the Championship.

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Paul Warne’s relegation record is a concern for Derby County

So far, so good, for Derby then. But, there is still a long way to go, and the club has been given a minimum target of simply avoiding the drop this season by the folks on the Second Tier podcast.

Discussing how the campaign has gone and what the future holds for the Rams, both Ryan Dilks and Justin Peach predicted Derby will finish lower than 12th, and Peach suggested they cannot afford to get sucked into a relegation battle, as Paul Warne’s record in those situations — he’s suffered relegated in every season he has managed in the Championship — could prove to be Derby’s downfall.

“I think staying up is the absolute minimum. What we’ve seen from this team so far is that they can compete. But the aim should be to be as comfortable as they can,” Peach said. “I don’t think they’ll push for the top half, I definitely don’t think they’ll push for the play-offs, but making sure they’re not in a relegation battle is the absolute must.”

“Mainly because, do I trust Paul Warne in a relegation battle considering his track record of being relegated from the Championship? Probably not making sure they’re not looking over their shoulder would be a good season,” Peach added.

Dilks chimed in to reiterate that Derby fans should be very happy with where they are right now, insisting the ultimate goal this season is for the Rams to “secure their place” in the division, and that consolidating that position is all “part of the rebuild” at Pride Park.

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Derby County have got what it takes to beat the drop

The Championship is always so hard to predict. Teams can make a great start and then fade away, while others can start poorly before going on a strong run and sneaking into the play-offs.

Derby will more than likely head in the wrong direction as the season goes on and the league table takes shape, but they should have enough to just about avoid a genuine relegation battle.

They’re grinding out results, keeping a solid backline, and they’ve got a few different sources of creativity which always helps. Derby’s proficiency from set-pieces is a big benefit, but they need to make sure they improve in possession and start to control games a bit more.

That is probably the main area of concern now, and the January transfer window could be a good opportunity to fix that by signing someone with real quality on the ball. Even if it’s a loan signing, that acquisition could be the big difference between the Rams fighting for their life or feeling a lot more comfortable.

It will become a lot clearer what kind of team Derby are and how their season will play out when they get through their next run of games, where they take on a number of teams around them like Sheffield Wednesday and Portsmouth, and are tested by top clubs in Leeds United and Burnley.